Cyril Ramaphosa’s long game is finally paying off

That is not the case here, where Ramaphosa could find his popularity increasing for two major reasons.

The first is that the economy is growing.

The second is that more people are beginning to realise how difficult it will be to follow him, and how unclear the post-Ramaphosa picture is.

This is rare. It is uncommon for leaders to grow more popular in their second term than in their first (although in Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s second term is famous for being the moment when he really acted and reformed the country).

All of this suggests that Ramaphosa’s strategy of the “long game” was correct.

Mounting successes
While it is obviously true that he is in a much more powerful position now than before, it is only a true victory if the state is reformed.

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Here, while there are important successes, the picture is more mixed, mainly because of the weakness of the state.

Much of this weakness, probably most of it, was a direct result of Zuma’s rule, what Ramaphosa has called the “nine wasted years”.

Photo Essay-In Pictures7
Patriotic Alliance leader Gayton McKenzie greets Jacob Zuma during the 2026 Sona debate on 17 February. (Photo: Jeffrey Abrahams / Gallo Images).
But some of it must also be because of the Covid-19 pandemic. While it is easy to criticise after the fact, there are still many consequences from Ramaphosa’s government’s decision to lock down as hard and for as long as they did.

Certainly, the rise of the illicit tobacco industry is a direct consequence of the inexplicable complete ban on these products during this period. While Ramaphosa may not have been the main driver, as President, he allowed it to happen.

On the other hand, some institutions, and in particular SARS, have been completely reformed.

And, breaking new ground, the National Director of Public Prosecutions has departed on her own terms and gone on record stating that her decisions were never compromised by political meddling.

Ramaphosa is responsible for these positive developments.

He must also be given credit for virtually all of the success of Operation Vulindlela.

Many of the achievements he listed last week, such as the end of load shedding, the improvements at Transnet and in the logistics sector, and the positive changes in the public rail system, are mainly because of this initiative.

While Ramaphosa may not play a direct role there, he has provided political cover to ensure that it succeeds.

Also, while his decisions to institute inquiries into various issues can be legitimately criticised, the longer term might well show he was right.

The inquiries into the SAPS will probably allow him to reshape not just the actual leadership in the police, but also how the leaders are appointed. He may even be able to change the very structure of the SAPS to ensure its members are properly depoliticised.

‘Cyril’s economy’
However, for many people, very little of this affects them.

The phrase “Cyril’s economy”, when heard in workplaces, in taxis and at braais, is not a compliment. It is a recognition of how tough life is.

And municipal councils, many of them riven by a fractured politics in which the ANC is central, seem almost unfixable.

That means that Joburg’s water crisis, which threatens so many people, may take a long time to fix.

And the promise to bring in the SANDF to deal with crime rings hollow. The SANDF is led by someone who uses government money to support soldiers charged with murdering a Hawks investigator and is spending hundreds of millions of rands on a Defence Force day in his hometown, while his soldiers don’t always have enough money for food.

Masterful game
Politically, there can be no doubt that Ramaphosa has played a masterful game.

He is in charge.

Our recent history is littered with the political carcasses of Magashule, Dlamini Zuma, Yengeni, and so many others who opposed Ramaphosa.

The person who posed the biggest threat, Zuma, is no longer a threat nationally (even though MK might soon find itself leading the provincial government in KwaZulu-Natal).

It is also true that many of the reforms at the top level of government and in our economy have been positive.

Slowly, so very slowly, there are signs that this will soon have an impact on millions of people who live in poverty.

Ramaphosa has won the long game. However, the real test is whether our economy can grow and create jobs. Given the nature of our society and its racialised inequality, this is a very tough ask.

But for millions of people, it is the only game that matters